Key takeaways
- NRF forecasts November and December retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion.
- About half of that growth is expected to come from higher prices, NRF says.
- A written budget and a plan to pay off any credit card spending are your best defenses.
Shoppers are expected to spend more than ever this holiday season. On Oct. 15, the National Retail Federation forecast that retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% from last year to about $1.013 trillion. Holiday sales grew 3.1% in 2025, to about $972 billion.
NRF’s chief economist said nearly half of this year’s expected growth should come from people buying more, with the rest coming from higher prices. Retailers expect to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers.
Why it matters for your budget
With inflation at 3.7% and gas prices high, many households are feeling squeezed. That makes it easy for holiday spending to land on credit cards that charge around 20% interest.
How to stay on track
- Set one total budget that includes gifts, food, travel, decorations and shipping.
- List everyone you’re buying for with a dollar amount next to each name.
- Shop early to spread costs over several paychecks.
- Use price trackers and compare Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals against your list, not against “original” prices.
- Be careful with buy now, pay later plans, especially from multiple stores at once. Read our BNPL guide.
- Pay off cards in full, or have a written plan to do it by February.
Read our full guide to holiday shopping without debt.
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